The blog - standing

I have decided to continue my tradition of giving some statistics for my blog, as well as to look back on the year that has passed and to point at topics of interest and what one can expect of this blog in 2013. My previous statistics articles were published on 1 January 2011 and 8 January 2012.

The number of articles in 2012 went down from 104 to 98 compared with 2011, but that was more or less as expected. I don't have enough time to write more than 1-2 articles a week on average. Obviously I had more spare time in the first part of the year (I wrote 13 in January and 14 in February 2012), while only 2 in July (I was abroad for 3 weeks in July and August). The number of unique page views is as of today (2 January 2013) 173 391, as compared to 95 537 on 8 January 2012 (counting from August 2009), so the blog is well visited, even though it is not updated as regularly as one could have wished.

Most of my blog visitors come from the United States (57 116), UK come second with 11 762 visitors, while Germany is third with 11 218 page views. Now for the main statistics - the most popular articles...

 Top ten counting from August 2009 to January 2013

1. 20.05.2012: HH Princess Athena Marguerite Françoise Marie of Denmark (5061 page views)
2. 26.10.2011: Princess Tatiana of Greece is pregnant (1473)
3. 02.09.2012: Confirmation of Marius Borg Høiby (1039)
4. 25.07.2010: Countess Ruth of Rosenborg has died (944)
5. 16.11.2010: UK: Prince William of Wales and Kate Middleton engaged to marry (931)
6. 23.02.2012: Royal birth in Sweden (879)
7. 30.11.2011: 'King' Leka of the Albanians has died (864)
8. 21.02.2012: HM King Harald V of Norway's 75th birthday (845)
9. 23.01.2010: Cimetière de Passy, Paris, France (791)
10. 29.01.2012: More on Crown Princess Mette-Marit’s Twitter account (698)

The latter was a follow-up to my first article on the subject, which was published on Friday 20 January 2012. It should be added that the numbers show unique page views. The Princess Athena article has in reality got 5359 hits as of today, while the article about Countess Ruth of Rosenborg's death has been viewed 1338 times.

Last year I was still amused that the Countess Ruth article still topped the statistics, but fortunately it has been passed by 3 other articles during 2012. The first to take Ruth down from the throne was the article covering the false pregnancy news - as it later turned out - about Princess Tatiana of Greece, the spouse of Prince Nikolaos, the third child of former King Constantine. The number of views really took off when the postscript was added on 12 March 2012, telling that she was not pregnant at all. A somewhat embarrassing story, and I can only wish I had been more critical when I wrote the article back in October 2011, although I guess most readers would agree with me that Billed-Bladet should take most of the blame!

Thankfully enough, the number of views almost exploded when I wrote about the names of Princess Athena, the second child of Prince Joachim and Princess Marie of Denmark. But why the article became that popular still puzzles me. Anyway, 5 of the 10 most read articles were written in 2012, which means I did something right during the year... When I look back on my contributions in 2012, I feel most satisfied with my articles on Crown Princess Mette-Marit's Twitter account, Painting in Canada and the many cemetery articles (there are many more to come!). On the other end of the scale, I was not too happy with my article on the names of Princess Estelle of Sweden, published on 25 February 2012. It started well, but then I made a mess (among others) of the rather easy task of giving examples of other Bernadotte descendants who were named Estelle (but not necessarily as a call name). As I don't remember all the Bernadotte members by heart, I consulted Ted Rosvall's latest edition of Bernadotteättlingar, but didn't read the relevant pages well enough, and couldn't even turn the page to find the last example, and I was duly corrected... I just have to laugh it off and try to being more focused in the future...

US elections 2012

As I am very interested in US American history and politics, I was very ambitious in writing several articles on the primaries in January, but it all stopped in February. I just didn't have the time to follow it up on my blog, but used my Twitter account instead. I wrote on my blog on 3 January 2012 that "It is of course far too early to predict who will win the election in November, but as of now I think the chances of Mitt Romney becoming the next US President is greater than that Obama will be re-elected", stating the weak economy as the reasoning behind my view point. I made all the necessesary reservations, of course. During the spring of 2012 I gradually changed my mind, as I came to realize that Romney had even more weaknesses than the president had. The voters, or at least the small majority, didn't manage to identify themselves with the GOP candidate, and he wasn't especially liked by the right wing of the Republican party either. Most in the know predicted the presidentical race to be close, and it was, but most of the time President Obama was leading the polls in the most important states, so it shouldn't really come as a big surprise that he won. Still, considering the bad state of the economy, I find it somewhat amazing that Obama actually pulled it off.

The US political dynasties still fascinate me. It is interesting to note that yet another Kennedy - Joe Kennedy III - was elected to the House of Representatives. One of the more moderate Republican voices in the Senate, Scott Brown, lost the election against Elizabeth Warren, but might get a comeback later in 2013 as John Kerry's senate seat becomes vacant.

It will be interesting to see how Obama will perform in the next four years. There are many aspects of the 2012 election and the candidates which could be interesting to discuss further, but I will leave it, at least for now. There are so many other blog topics worth discussing as well. It is safe to say, however, that considering the many biographies I have read on American politicians during 2012, I must say that my interest in US history and politics have deepened even further during the year!

Reading

I have already touched on my reading list. My sparetime has become rather busy due to family obligations, organisation work etc., but still I have managed to read quite a few books, mostly biographies, during 2012. My most valuable reading time is on the metro (T-bane) on my way to work and back again, which explains why I use my Kindle device for most of my reading, as it is most practical. I have planned for a long time to write a longer article about my reading list and my impressions of the various books I have read, as it could be a nice exchange with my blog readers, but it has to be done later. The best biograophy I have read in 2012? Not exactly a new title, but Donald Rumsfeld's Known and Unknown from 2011 was very impressive. On the other end of the scale, Senator Marco Rubio's An American Son. A Memoir, was a big disappointment. Not well written - too superficial, too many repetitions. I know that autobiographies written when the author tries to position himself for a possible office - Rubio was mentioned as one of several possible VP candidates for Romney before Paul Ryan was picked - comes into a category on its own and should be judged with that in mind. I also know that many consider Rubio to be among the favourites to win the GOP nomination for presidency in 2016 (yes, it is very early still!), and although I understand that his Cuban background could work well with the Latino voters, I would be surprised, almost disappointed, if the Republican party should elect a politician with so little substance. Give me Governor Susana Martinez or even former Governor Jeb Bush any time...

Best novel? It took a while for me to discover Tess Gerritsen, but her crime novel The Surgeon from 2002 was excellent. One of the best crime novels I have ever read, and I have read a lot! Her latest, Last to die, is also recommendable.

Travels

I love traveling, and although I couldn't add a new country to my list, my trips abroad was very enjoyable also in 2012. I have already written about my visit to the island of Tjörn back in May, while I have just started to write about my US visit in July/August. I will have to come back to my two trips to Norwich as well. Then later I have to go further backwards to write about other trips in Norway and abroad. And of course there will be new trips...

2013

There will be lots of topics to write about and discuss in 2013, I am sure. In Norway the general election will take place in September. Exciting! The forthcoming royal birth in the UK will give lots to write about, and hopefully the process to the change the succession law will go well in all the countries Queen Elizabeth II is head of state of. There will be a royal wedding in Sweden in June, and the Romanovs will celebrate their 400th anniversary. I can't promise that the number of articles will be higher in 2013 than in 2012. I expect, however, that the majority of my articles will cover genealogy (including cemeteries) and royalty. Anyway, thanks for stopping by! And once again I wish you all a very happy new year!

Photo: Outside the West Virginia State Capitol in Charleston with the Lincoln monument, July 2012. Inscription: "Abraham Lincoln created the state of West Virginia by proclamation and signature / West Virginia joined the Union June 20, 1863".

Updated on Thursday 3 January 2013 at 08:05 (link added to Painting in Canada article).

Primaries and Reagan Conference

The fight for the 2012 GOP nomination continues. Newt Gingrish crushed frontrunner Mitt Romney in South Carolina on 21 January 2012, while Romney regained momentum by a massive win in Florida ten days later.

In South Carolina Gingrich won 40,4% of the votes, while Romney got only 27,8%. Rick Santorum came third with 17%, while Ron Paul was the last of the pack with 13%. Rick Perry had already quit the game prior to the primary. But Florida is a less conservative state than South Carolina, and Romney won as much as 46,4% of the votes. Gingrich ended second with 31,9%, Santorum got 13,3%, while Paul didn't manage to follow up his good results in the previous primaries and only got 7%. Gingrich has promised to keep on, even after Super Tuesday on 6 March, but most experts seem to believe that the race in reality is over. Nevada and Maine will get some attention when the caucuses take place on Saturday 4 February.

I am sure the members of the Monticello Society and others who are interested in US American politics will have plenty to talk about when they meet up for the traditional Reagan-seminaret - the Reagan Conference - on Sunday 5 February 2012 at Litteraturhuset (the House of Literature) in Oslo. I will of course be there!

Checking out the program, we are told that the conference will be opened by the president of the Monticello Society, George K. Gooding, who replaced Jon Henrik Gilhuus last year. For those of you who are interested in the (former) Norwegian noble families, I could add that Gooding's mother, née Knagenhjelm, can be found in Danmarks Adels Aarbog (Yearbook of of the Danish Nobility) 2006-2008 on p. 241. But that will not be among the topics on Sunday!

Arve Øverland, senior consultant at Gambit Hill & Knowlton, has the honour of giving the first lecture, and his chosen topic is social media in the election campaign. Øverland has worked in the USA with Internet marketing since the 1990s. After Øverland's contribution the members of the Monticello Society's committee will discuss the status of the nomination campaign in form of a panel debate.

After lunch, Anders Gieæver, who used to be the Norwegian daily VG's correspondent in the USA, will look back on the 2008 election as he witnessed it. Committee member Bjørn Christian Finbråten is going to talk about the international marking of the Reagan Year - last year it was 100 years since former President Ronald Reagan was born.

Another committee member, Christopher Rødsten, will then talk about the American gas adventure - potential and political disagreement. Traditionally enough there will also be a film break, and this time the topic is Ronald Reagan's relationship with Margaret Thatcher. Dag Inge Fjeld and Bjørn Christian Finbråten will make the introduction. The last man out is chief economist Jan Andreassen of Terra Markets. His contribution will be the handling of [a] financial crisis and its significance for the outcome of a election - Obama vs. Reagan.

In other words, there are plenty of topics to look forward to!

Updated on Wednesday 1 February 2012 at 23.20 (typos corrected).

Santorum declared winner of Iowa caucuses

Following a recount in Iowa it turns out that it was Rick Santorum - and not the front-runner Mitt Romney - who won the GOP caucuses on 3 January this year, Des Moines Register reports today (see also Bloomberg.com). It was earlier reported that Mitt Romney had won by 8 votes, but the new count gives 34 votes in favour of Santorum. Really? It turns out that 8 precincts remain uncertified, so it will be difficult to say for sure who the winner really was.

Concerning the number of delegates from Iowa, it will not change anything. The question is whether Santorum's (alleged) victory would have made a bigger impact on the campaign if it had been known earlier. I have my doubts. Santorum didn't stand a chance in New Hampshire anyway, and today's news will probably not change the result in Saturday's South Carolina primary much either.

Obviously the campaign has become more open and exciting now as Rick Perry has finally suspended his campaign and endorsed Newt Gingrich. Romney still has a small lead in South Carolina according to the latest polls (see RCP), but it will be interesting to see how Perry's goodbye will influence the campaign in the next few days. Could Gingrich actually win in South Carolina? Well, he certainly can. Then again, if ABC's interview with his ex-wife Marianne is aired before the primary takes place on Saturday 21 January, it might hurt his chances. Mitt Romney will nevertheless remain the front-runner and favourite to win the GOP nomination. But the campaign will certainly be more exciting for a few days more. Santorum and Paul are too far behind to have any chance in South Carolina. As of now Romney holds a solid lead in Florida (RCP). If he wins there, I am inclined to believe that it is a done deal.

New Hampshire primary

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won Tuesday 10 January 2012 the New Hampshire primary as everyone expected he would and thus strengthened his position as the Republican party's front runner in the battle for presidential nomination. Romney even became the first GOP candidate except for sitting presidents to win both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.

Romney won 39,3% of the votes, while Ron Paul came second with 23,8% (cf. Real Clear Politics). In my last comment on the GOP campaign I suggested that Romney would get 45% of the votes, but that was obviously a bit too optimistic on his behalf. When Monticello Society yesterday invited its readers to forecast the top three, I adjusted my estimate to 38%, which wasn't too bad, but as so many of the others who responded to Monticello's challenge, I underestimated the libertarian Ron Paul's popularity. Jon Huntsman only got 16,9% of the votes and thus became third, Newt Gingrich and Rich Santorum got 9,4% each, while Rick Perry only collected 0,7% of the votes. According to 2012newhampshireprimary.com, Romney then got 5 delegates, Paul 3 and Huntsman 2 (according to Wikipedia - for whatever it is worth - Romney won 7 delegates, which seems more plausible).

Next one out is South Carolina on 21 January, and Gingrich, Santorum and Perry need to do really well in order to not to be left too far behind Romney. The latest polls published at Real Clear Politics (dated before the NH primary) suggest that Romney has a solid grip on the campaign in South Carolina as well. I guess it doesn't hurt his chances that he has already been endorsed by Governor Nikki Haley, who is one of several candidates mentioned for the vice precident nomination.

What a battle we will witness in the forthcoming days!

Iowa caucuses

What a thriller the Iowa caucuses last night turned out to be! And my prayers were almost heard! Almost! :-) Mitt Romney won Iowa by 8 more votes than Rick Santorum (30,015 vs. 30.007)! Romney won 24,6% of the votes, Santorum got 24,5%, Ron Paul 21,4%, Newt Gingrich 13,3%, Rick Perry 10,3%, the Norwegian-American Michele Bachmann 5%, Jon Huntsman 0,6% (but he didn't spend much time in Iowa if any at all), 0,1% had no preference (135 people), 0,1% voted for other candidates (who?), while Herman Cain, who suspended his campaign last month, got 58 votes. All according to Des Moines Register.

Iowa's Republican party only provides 28 delegates to the party convention in August. The caucus is said to give one or more candidates a boost before the later primaries, but is not necessarily that important after all. John McCain became no. 4 in 2008, but made a great comeback in New Hampshire and never really looked back. Not that I think Gingrich will follow in McCain's footsteps. According to the polls (source Real Clear Politics) he is still in the lead in South Carolina and Florida, but Gingrich's popularity has dropped since the polls took place and even if he might still do relatively well in those states, it will not be enough to stop Romney's parade towards August victory.

Even if Romney just about won Iowa, one could say that Santorum became "the true winner" if one considers how far behind he was in the polls only a couple of weeks ago. His "barnstorming" (how I love this expression!) of Iowa paid off. He will enjoy the sun for a while, and it will be interesting to see how much he can climb in popularity in South Carolina and Florida, but most commentaries today don't believe in his future beyond that.

I still haven't found any website which shows the GOP delegate count after the Iowa caucus. That could be because the delegates are not formally elected yet. The path goes from the precinct caucuses via the county and district conventions to the Iowa state convention, which actually chooses the delegates. In theory they are unbound from the results of the precinct caucuses. So different election system from I am used to here in Norway, but very fascinating! If the delegates were bound to follow the results, Romney and Santorum would have won 7 each, Paul 6, Gingrich 4, Perry 3 and Bachmann 1. If I have got the math right, that is!

Michele Bachmann, who was born in Iowa and represent the neighbour state Minnesota in the US House of Representatives, decided to suspend her campaign today, just as I predicted yesterday. There were rumours earlier today that Perry was about to give up as well, but he has decided to go on. It will probably not last for long, though.

The New Hampshire primary takes place on 10 January 2012. As I have already commented on, Romney is sure to win, and the question is only how big the percentage will be. 45% perhaps? And can Jon Huntsman create a few headlines? Time will show. I will not be able to blog about every primary or caucus this spring - and of course there are other bloggers who will write far better comments and analysis than I can - but you can be sure that I will continue to follow the campaign with great interest!

The only thing I wonder about is how to get photos (free of use) of the various candidates? I have checked their websites, but not found pages which includes photos "in the public domain". Anyone who can help me out? E-mails and tweets to Romney's campaign office has not helped so far... The blog could need some illustrations in connection with my US elections comments.

Updated on Thursday 5 January 2012 at 15.45 (subject title).

US Presidential Election 2012, Iowa caucuses

Finally the day has come! The US Presidential Election 2012 opens with the Iowa caucus tonight. As I have written earlier, I am very interested in US politics and have looked forward to this year's campaign for a long time.

The former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, has more or less been campaigning ever since he lost the GOP nomination in 2008 to John McCain, and many consider him to be «the next in line» to front the party in this year's election. He is supported by the majority of the Republican establishment, he is in the lead among the Republican candidates concerning fundraising, he has solid business experience which surely will be helpful and the polls show that he has the greatest chance to beat President Barack Obama.

It is of course far too early to predict who will win the election in November, but as of now I think the chances of Mitt Romney becoming the next US President is greater than that Obama will be re-elected. The economy is the main reason for this. According to Cafferty File no president since Roosevelt has won re-election with unemployment over 7.2% The current rate is today 8.6%, and no-one seriously expects that it will be anywhere near 7.2% in November. But if the economy shows signs of improvement in the fall, Obama might surprise us after all.

The GOP campaign has been interesting to watch the last few months. Romney is obviously one of the Republican candidates closest to the political center, and for the Republican (Christian-Conservative) right he is just not conservative enough. The «anyone but Mitt» slogan has dominated in the GOP campaign so far, where more conservative politicians, supported by the Tea Party, have give given Romney a true challenge for a while but then slipped behind again – Pawlenty, Bachmann, Perry, Cain and Gingrich have all come and gone. Romney's position has not weakened. Tonight only Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum have a chance to win the Iowa caucus, and to keep some excitement a few more weeks I almost hope that Santorum will win the majority of delegates!

Romney doesn't need to win tonight, he is certain to win in New Hampshire and will probably take South Carolina unless Santorum's campaign should catch more wind if he does well tonight. Gingrich shouldn't be ruled out completely, but as I have already hinted I would be really surprised if Romney doesn't win the nomination in the end. It will be more exciting to see who he will choose as his VP candidate. He might have to pick a more conservative partner in order to please the right wing of his party, but the VP can't be too conservative either as it would surely scare off too many of the independent, centrist votes. I will come back to this later on.

The results of the Iowa caucus is expected to be ready around 3 a.m. Norwegian time. I would love to stay up to follow the news as the results come in, but as my 17 months old daughter has not given me the best sleep the last couple of nights, I will have to wait until tomorrow to get the latest news of the campaign. I plan to visit the United States in the summer and really hope that I will be able to follow the election campaign more closely then.

I have to include some genealogy in this article as well. It is after all one of my main interests. Fortunately the website of the genealogist William A. Reitwiesner, who died in 2010, is still in existence. At his website Wargs.com you can find the ancestry tables of Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich. Rick Santorum is not listed, but you can find some details here and here. I have blogged about Michele Bachmann, née Amble, earlier. I haven't had the time yet to do more research on her Norwegian ancestry, but you will find some details here, here and here. One of Rick Perry's great-great grandfathers was a Choctaw (Native American) according to this page. Yet another page with information on his ancestry can be found here. And finally, go here for a collection of the presidential candidates' ancestries. I can of course not speak for the accuracy of information given at the various websites I have provided links to.

Updated on Thursday 5 January 2012 at 15.45 (subject title).

Senator John Thune not running for president

The Republican Senator John Thune from South Dakota has in a statement today informed that he will not run for president in 2012. Thune, who has Norwegian roots, has by many commentators been viewed as an outsider or dark horse candidate, and some have, although doubting his chances, viewed him as a potential vice president candidate for Mitt Romney, who currently has a very small lead in the polls.

RealClearPolitics believes that Thune's decision not to run will allow him "to move up in the Senate" by going for the whip position. A strengthened position in the Senate might give him a better chance in 2016, who knows?

I still hope to work more on his ancestry. His grandfather Nikolai Nilsen Gjelsvik was born at Gjelsvik in Vevring (today in Askvoll municipality) and emigrated to the United States in 1906. I have posted some notes on his ancestry at Digitalarkivet's users' forum and don't think it will be difficult to trace more of his ancestors.

See also The New York Times' and The Washington Post's articles on John Thune's decision to pass on the 2012 presidential run.