Primaries and Reagan Conference

The fight for the 2012 GOP nomination continues. Newt Gingrish crushed frontrunner Mitt Romney in South Carolina on 21 January 2012, while Romney regained momentum by a massive win in Florida ten days later.

In South Carolina Gingrich won 40,4% of the votes, while Romney got only 27,8%. Rick Santorum came third with 17%, while Ron Paul was the last of the pack with 13%. Rick Perry had already quit the game prior to the primary. But Florida is a less conservative state than South Carolina, and Romney won as much as 46,4% of the votes. Gingrich ended second with 31,9%, Santorum got 13,3%, while Paul didn't manage to follow up his good results in the previous primaries and only got 7%. Gingrich has promised to keep on, even after Super Tuesday on 6 March, but most experts seem to believe that the race in reality is over. Nevada and Maine will get some attention when the caucuses take place on Saturday 4 February.

I am sure the members of the Monticello Society and others who are interested in US American politics will have plenty to talk about when they meet up for the traditional Reagan-seminaret - the Reagan Conference - on Sunday 5 February 2012 at Litteraturhuset (the House of Literature) in Oslo. I will of course be there!

Checking out the program, we are told that the conference will be opened by the president of the Monticello Society, George K. Gooding, who replaced Jon Henrik Gilhuus last year. For those of you who are interested in the (former) Norwegian noble families, I could add that Gooding's mother, née Knagenhjelm, can be found in Danmarks Adels Aarbog (Yearbook of of the Danish Nobility) 2006-2008 on p. 241. But that will not be among the topics on Sunday!

Arve Øverland, senior consultant at Gambit Hill & Knowlton, has the honour of giving the first lecture, and his chosen topic is social media in the election campaign. Øverland has worked in the USA with Internet marketing since the 1990s. After Øverland's contribution the members of the Monticello Society's committee will discuss the status of the nomination campaign in form of a panel debate.

After lunch, Anders Gieæver, who used to be the Norwegian daily VG's correspondent in the USA, will look back on the 2008 election as he witnessed it. Committee member Bjørn Christian Finbråten is going to talk about the international marking of the Reagan Year - last year it was 100 years since former President Ronald Reagan was born.

Another committee member, Christopher Rødsten, will then talk about the American gas adventure - potential and political disagreement. Traditionally enough there will also be a film break, and this time the topic is Ronald Reagan's relationship with Margaret Thatcher. Dag Inge Fjeld and Bjørn Christian Finbråten will make the introduction. The last man out is chief economist Jan Andreassen of Terra Markets. His contribution will be the handling of [a] financial crisis and its significance for the outcome of a election - Obama vs. Reagan.

In other words, there are plenty of topics to look forward to!

Updated on Wednesday 1 February 2012 at 23.20 (typos corrected).

Santorum declared winner of Iowa caucuses

Following a recount in Iowa it turns out that it was Rick Santorum - and not the front-runner Mitt Romney - who won the GOP caucuses on 3 January this year, Des Moines Register reports today (see also Bloomberg.com). It was earlier reported that Mitt Romney had won by 8 votes, but the new count gives 34 votes in favour of Santorum. Really? It turns out that 8 precincts remain uncertified, so it will be difficult to say for sure who the winner really was.

Concerning the number of delegates from Iowa, it will not change anything. The question is whether Santorum's (alleged) victory would have made a bigger impact on the campaign if it had been known earlier. I have my doubts. Santorum didn't stand a chance in New Hampshire anyway, and today's news will probably not change the result in Saturday's South Carolina primary much either.

Obviously the campaign has become more open and exciting now as Rick Perry has finally suspended his campaign and endorsed Newt Gingrich. Romney still has a small lead in South Carolina according to the latest polls (see RCP), but it will be interesting to see how Perry's goodbye will influence the campaign in the next few days. Could Gingrich actually win in South Carolina? Well, he certainly can. Then again, if ABC's interview with his ex-wife Marianne is aired before the primary takes place on Saturday 21 January, it might hurt his chances. Mitt Romney will nevertheless remain the front-runner and favourite to win the GOP nomination. But the campaign will certainly be more exciting for a few days more. Santorum and Paul are too far behind to have any chance in South Carolina. As of now Romney holds a solid lead in Florida (RCP). If he wins there, I am inclined to believe that it is a done deal.

New Hampshire primary

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won Tuesday 10 January 2012 the New Hampshire primary as everyone expected he would and thus strengthened his position as the Republican party's front runner in the battle for presidential nomination. Romney even became the first GOP candidate except for sitting presidents to win both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.

Romney won 39,3% of the votes, while Ron Paul came second with 23,8% (cf. Real Clear Politics). In my last comment on the GOP campaign I suggested that Romney would get 45% of the votes, but that was obviously a bit too optimistic on his behalf. When Monticello Society yesterday invited its readers to forecast the top three, I adjusted my estimate to 38%, which wasn't too bad, but as so many of the others who responded to Monticello's challenge, I underestimated the libertarian Ron Paul's popularity. Jon Huntsman only got 16,9% of the votes and thus became third, Newt Gingrich and Rich Santorum got 9,4% each, while Rick Perry only collected 0,7% of the votes. According to 2012newhampshireprimary.com, Romney then got 5 delegates, Paul 3 and Huntsman 2 (according to Wikipedia - for whatever it is worth - Romney won 7 delegates, which seems more plausible).

Next one out is South Carolina on 21 January, and Gingrich, Santorum and Perry need to do really well in order to not to be left too far behind Romney. The latest polls published at Real Clear Politics (dated before the NH primary) suggest that Romney has a solid grip on the campaign in South Carolina as well. I guess it doesn't hurt his chances that he has already been endorsed by Governor Nikki Haley, who is one of several candidates mentioned for the vice precident nomination.

What a battle we will witness in the forthcoming days!

Iowa caucuses

What a thriller the Iowa caucuses last night turned out to be! And my prayers were almost heard! Almost! :-) Mitt Romney won Iowa by 8 more votes than Rick Santorum (30,015 vs. 30.007)! Romney won 24,6% of the votes, Santorum got 24,5%, Ron Paul 21,4%, Newt Gingrich 13,3%, Rick Perry 10,3%, the Norwegian-American Michele Bachmann 5%, Jon Huntsman 0,6% (but he didn't spend much time in Iowa if any at all), 0,1% had no preference (135 people), 0,1% voted for other candidates (who?), while Herman Cain, who suspended his campaign last month, got 58 votes. All according to Des Moines Register.

Iowa's Republican party only provides 28 delegates to the party convention in August. The caucus is said to give one or more candidates a boost before the later primaries, but is not necessarily that important after all. John McCain became no. 4 in 2008, but made a great comeback in New Hampshire and never really looked back. Not that I think Gingrich will follow in McCain's footsteps. According to the polls (source Real Clear Politics) he is still in the lead in South Carolina and Florida, but Gingrich's popularity has dropped since the polls took place and even if he might still do relatively well in those states, it will not be enough to stop Romney's parade towards August victory.

Even if Romney just about won Iowa, one could say that Santorum became "the true winner" if one considers how far behind he was in the polls only a couple of weeks ago. His "barnstorming" (how I love this expression!) of Iowa paid off. He will enjoy the sun for a while, and it will be interesting to see how much he can climb in popularity in South Carolina and Florida, but most commentaries today don't believe in his future beyond that.

I still haven't found any website which shows the GOP delegate count after the Iowa caucus. That could be because the delegates are not formally elected yet. The path goes from the precinct caucuses via the county and district conventions to the Iowa state convention, which actually chooses the delegates. In theory they are unbound from the results of the precinct caucuses. So different election system from I am used to here in Norway, but very fascinating! If the delegates were bound to follow the results, Romney and Santorum would have won 7 each, Paul 6, Gingrich 4, Perry 3 and Bachmann 1. If I have got the math right, that is!

Michele Bachmann, who was born in Iowa and represent the neighbour state Minnesota in the US House of Representatives, decided to suspend her campaign today, just as I predicted yesterday. There were rumours earlier today that Perry was about to give up as well, but he has decided to go on. It will probably not last for long, though.

The New Hampshire primary takes place on 10 January 2012. As I have already commented on, Romney is sure to win, and the question is only how big the percentage will be. 45% perhaps? And can Jon Huntsman create a few headlines? Time will show. I will not be able to blog about every primary or caucus this spring - and of course there are other bloggers who will write far better comments and analysis than I can - but you can be sure that I will continue to follow the campaign with great interest!

The only thing I wonder about is how to get photos (free of use) of the various candidates? I have checked their websites, but not found pages which includes photos "in the public domain". Anyone who can help me out? E-mails and tweets to Romney's campaign office has not helped so far... The blog could need some illustrations in connection with my US elections comments.

Updated on Thursday 5 January 2012 at 15.45 (subject title).