Reaganseminaret 2013 (The Reagan Conference 2013)

The annual Reagan Conference (Reagan-seminaret) hosted by the Monticello Society will this year take place tomorrow, Sunday 10 february 2013, at Litteraturhuset in Oslo.

As usual the program reveals many interesting topics about US American politics and society in general:

• Amerikanske krimserier: Hva forteller de oss om USA? (American crime series: What to they tell us about the USA?) by the music and film journalist Asbjørn Slettemark
• Fairness-doktrinen, Rush Limbaugh og fremveksten av konservativ talkradio (The Fairness Doctrine, Rush Limbaugh and the growth of conservative talk radio) by Helene Megaard
• Valgkampen 2012 "backstage" (The Election 2012 backstage) by Are Flaten, editor of Amerikanskpolitikk.no.
• Videoinnslag: Reagans "Big Tent"-parti (Video Hour: Reagan's "Big Tent" party) by Dag Inge Fjeld, Monticello Society
• Er Republikanerne dømt til å tape? Den demografiske utviklingen i USA med vekt på latin-amerikanere (Are the Republicans destined to lose? The demographic developments in the USA with emphasis on the Hispanics) by Jan Arild Snoen, Minerva og Monticello Society
• Panel: Hva skal og må Republikanerne gjøre for å være konkurransedyktige fremover? (inkludert spørsmål fra salen) Hilde Restad (USA-forsker og førsteamanuensis, Bjørknes), Jan Arild Snoen, George Gooding, Jørn Ødegaard (Monticello Society); ordstyrer: Christopher Rødsten, Monticello Society (Debate: What will and what have the Republicans to do in order to become competitive in the years to come? Participants: Hilde Restad, Jan Arild Snoen, George Gooding (President, Monticello Society), Jørn Ødegaard (Monticello Society). Moderator: Christopher Rødsten, Monticello Society).

Go here for an article about last year's conference.

Primaries and Reagan Conference

The fight for the 2012 GOP nomination continues. Newt Gingrish crushed frontrunner Mitt Romney in South Carolina on 21 January 2012, while Romney regained momentum by a massive win in Florida ten days later.

In South Carolina Gingrich won 40,4% of the votes, while Romney got only 27,8%. Rick Santorum came third with 17%, while Ron Paul was the last of the pack with 13%. Rick Perry had already quit the game prior to the primary. But Florida is a less conservative state than South Carolina, and Romney won as much as 46,4% of the votes. Gingrich ended second with 31,9%, Santorum got 13,3%, while Paul didn't manage to follow up his good results in the previous primaries and only got 7%. Gingrich has promised to keep on, even after Super Tuesday on 6 March, but most experts seem to believe that the race in reality is over. Nevada and Maine will get some attention when the caucuses take place on Saturday 4 February.

I am sure the members of the Monticello Society and others who are interested in US American politics will have plenty to talk about when they meet up for the traditional Reagan-seminaret - the Reagan Conference - on Sunday 5 February 2012 at Litteraturhuset (the House of Literature) in Oslo. I will of course be there!

Checking out the program, we are told that the conference will be opened by the president of the Monticello Society, George K. Gooding, who replaced Jon Henrik Gilhuus last year. For those of you who are interested in the (former) Norwegian noble families, I could add that Gooding's mother, née Knagenhjelm, can be found in Danmarks Adels Aarbog (Yearbook of of the Danish Nobility) 2006-2008 on p. 241. But that will not be among the topics on Sunday!

Arve Øverland, senior consultant at Gambit Hill & Knowlton, has the honour of giving the first lecture, and his chosen topic is social media in the election campaign. Øverland has worked in the USA with Internet marketing since the 1990s. After Øverland's contribution the members of the Monticello Society's committee will discuss the status of the nomination campaign in form of a panel debate.

After lunch, Anders Gieæver, who used to be the Norwegian daily VG's correspondent in the USA, will look back on the 2008 election as he witnessed it. Committee member Bjørn Christian Finbråten is going to talk about the international marking of the Reagan Year - last year it was 100 years since former President Ronald Reagan was born.

Another committee member, Christopher Rødsten, will then talk about the American gas adventure - potential and political disagreement. Traditionally enough there will also be a film break, and this time the topic is Ronald Reagan's relationship with Margaret Thatcher. Dag Inge Fjeld and Bjørn Christian Finbråten will make the introduction. The last man out is chief economist Jan Andreassen of Terra Markets. His contribution will be the handling of [a] financial crisis and its significance for the outcome of a election - Obama vs. Reagan.

In other words, there are plenty of topics to look forward to!

Updated on Wednesday 1 February 2012 at 23.20 (typos corrected).

Monticello Society makes ready for US elections 2012

It is only January 2011 yet, but the speculations about possible candidates for the Republican nomination for US President have been going on for a while already, and most of the Republican politicians will publically announce their candidature during the winter and spring. The election will take place on 6 November 2012, by the way. It will as always be a long and exhausting campaign.

The Norwegian-based Monticello Society, which I am a member of, is perhaps the best place for Norwegians to find information and facts about US American politics and campaigns.(*) The purpose of the Monticello Society is to study the history, society, politics and culture of the USA, to work to enhance Norwegian's knowledge and understanding of American affairs and to oppose anti-American attitudes, particularly in the Norwegian media. Each year the society hosts the Reagan Conference and arranges members meetings with US politics and society on the agenda. The society's president Jan Henrik Gilhuus and vice president Jan Arild Snoen are among the leading experts on US American politics and campaigns here in Norway and are often consulted by the media.

Today it was announced that the society's 2012 election pages had been created. It aims to cover the nominations and campaigns for president, Senate, House of Representatives as well as the elections on state level. Besides the presidential election, 33 senate races as well as House of Representatives elections and 11 elections for Governor will take place. Exciting as always!

I have followed US politics and campaigns with great interest since I was a teenager, and have set a goal to read a (serious) biography of every US president, as well as books on other central politicians past & present. During the last few years I gather that I have read far more books about US politicians than about royals. In other words, I am really looking forward to the elections in 2012!

It is far too early - at least for me - to make serious predictions. It is not difficult, however, to say with almost certainty that President Barack Obama will win the nomination for the Democrats. The only elected Democratic President to have lost the nomination was Franklin Pierce in 1856, and I don't think that Obama will be seriously challenged within his own party. The midterm elections in 2010 turned out to be a disaster for the Democrats, so Obama will have tough job ahead of him in order to be re-elected. But it is still a long time until 6 November 2012. If the financial situation improves, it will improve his chances. Democratic presidents who run as a moderate but rule as a liberal will often end up in trouble, as Carter experienced in 1980. Obama has to move to the center to win back his supporters from 2008.

The campaign to win the nomination for the Republicans will of course be far more exciting, and it is still a very open race, among the reasons why I follow so many Republican politicians on Twitter. Many would maintain that the Republicans tend to nominate the candidate who is regarded to be "next in line", and this time it is Mitt Romney's turn. Personally I am not too excited about his candidature, and he seems a bit "yesterday news" to me, but I will probably be wrong. The last poll shows that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is in the lead, but as of today both would lose to Obama (see RealClearPolitics, polls 20 and 21 January 2011). Other candidates mentioned are among others former Alaskas Governor Sarah Palin, who was the Republicans' vice president candidate in 2008; former Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Senator John Thune of South Dakota, US Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, Jr. of Utah, Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana and Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts.

It might be too early for Scott Brown to run, but then again he is not in a much different position than Barack Obama was in 2008. Some think he is too liberal, too. He could be vice president material, though, although a Romney/Thune or a Romney/Daniels ticket might seem more likely. It will be fun to watch John Thune's campaign though - if he decides to run, that is. Of course the world needs a US president of Norwegian ancestry! :-) I still find it difficult to believe that populist candidates like Palin and Huckabee could win the nomination - the former will most likely be crushed by the other Republican hopefuls if she dares to run.

I will surely return with more comments and predictions later on! We are up for a lot of fun!

(*) Of course I get my news feed from many other sources, including RealClearPolitics, Politico.com, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post (which, by the way, asks today: "Who can win the 2012 GOP nomination?"), The Boston Globe and others.

Updated on Sunday 23 January 2011 at 10.15 (url corrected); last time updated on Wednesday 1 February 2012 at 23.30 (typo corrected).